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Who will win Eurovision? Favorites to bet and listen on Spotify

Latest NewsWho will win Eurovision? Favorites to bet and listen on Spotify

The rates predict Eurovision quite well. Not being infallible, they constantly predicted high positions. Last year they favored Italy, who won, and in the previous draw, they favored the Netherlands, who also won. Since 2016, the bets have always given the winner and the second place among the three favorites.

What are they saying this year? Rates unambiguously on Ukraine. His song Stefania performed by the Kalush Orchestra will have a 59% chance of winning the competition, ahead of the English Space Man (11%) and the Swedish Hold Me Closer (9%). Spain’s representative, Channel, will be fifth with their song SloMo with one entry out of 25 to surprise and win the competition.

This data suggests that Ukraine could have won on Saturday thanks to a wave of solidarity with the country after Russian aggression. His song is a favorite in the bets, although not among the most popular due to the number of listeners on Spotify.

The streaming app offers data on the “popularity” of each song based on the total number of plays and their trends. Because of this, we know that the Italian song is the most popular (with 78 out of 100), followed by Swedish (73) and Dutch (73). The Spanish song appears fourth (68) in a pursuit group that includes Germany, Norway and the UK.

Some of the focus of each song seems to be internal: the top three songs featured on Spotify are the three that seem to be among the most streamed in their respective countries. The exception is Ukraine, perhaps due to the war, which is the third most popular song in its country, but is generally not popular. The Spanish song doesn’t fit the template either. Although it is the fourth most played among the participants, it did not even make it into the top 100 most streamed songs in Spain this week.

Additional Information

song style

Among the twenty-five songs that will compete on Saturday, there are upbeat and touching songs, as well as less energetic ballads. Spotify’s data allows us to rank each song on four dimensions: how positive they are, how danceable they are, how likely they are to be acoustic, and how energetic they are.

The Spanish song SloMo is one of the most positive, danceable and energetic. As the graph shows, it also sounds more electronic than the average of the participating songs.

The songs can be divided into three groups: 1) positive and danceable, 2) sad and acoustic, and 3) sad but more electronic. They can be viewed one by one on the graph. The characteristic song of the first group is the Romanian call me, and the representative of the third group, more sad, is Hold Me Closer, a Swedish song that is among the favorites.

There is no magic formula for winning. Over the past ten years, six positive and danceable songs have won Eurovision, for example, last year the Italian Zitti e Buoni by Måneskin or Toy by Netta, which won in 2018, but there were also four winners with sad songs, such as the Portuguese, Amar Pelos Doyce, Salvador Sobral, 2017.

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